We systematically overestimate the chances of success - Survivorship Bias

Why:

In daily life, triumph is made more visible than failure.

How to Protect us:

“Guard against it by frequently visiting the graves of once-promising projects, investments, and careers”

• Stock index is not an indicative of a country’s economy
• Even your success is a pure coincidence, you will discover similarities with other winner and tempted to mark them as success factors